GBP/AUD breaks through 1.81 as the Australian Dollar continues to weaken further

Good morning,

  • GBP/AUD breaks through 1.81 and has potential to move even higher.
  • Weaker Chinese data hints towards further troubles for the Australian economy.


What a difference a couple of weeks makes; just when we thought the rates might have plateaued ,worse Chinese Manufacturing and a speech from RBA Governor Glen Steven’s caused a near 5% move in the GBP/AUD exchange rate.



GBP/AUD 1 MONTH GRAPH



To make the most out of your funds click here.

Yesterday gave us poor Non-Manufacturing PMI and the current account deficit in Australia widening even further to -12.7B. As expected the official cash rate was held at 2.5 per cent and Governor Steven’s stated that the Australian dollar is “uncomfortably high” and “a lower level of the exchange rate is likely to be needed to achieve a balanced growth in the economy”.

By stating this Steven’s could be indicating towards weakening the Australian Dollar even further to help boost exports in an attempt to try and reduce the current account deficit. By increasing exports you are effectively increasing overall GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures for the country as a whole helping the overall economic outlook.

Looking at where the rate has been we are now at the highest the GBP/AUD rate has been since January 2010. If you are looking to buy Australian Dollars but would still like to take advantage of the movement if the rate goes in your favour; place a Stop Loss contract lower than where we are currently trading and continue to track the market upwards.

If you are looking to  discuss your options when it comes to currency exchange; take the next step and send us a free enquiry and have a consultation on all the options available to you. It’s free, it doesn’t obligate you, and you may be surprised how much you can save by using us to get exchange rates that are up to 5% better than offered by banks.

If you would prefer to talk through your options please feel free to give me a quick call – 01442 892072 or email – [email protected].

Economic Data and its affect on exchange rates

Tuesday 3rd December 2013 
This morning we saw unemployment numbers from Spain. Despite the market believing an extra 50,000 unemployed people, in fact there were only 2500. This was much better than expected and so strengthened the Euro, bringing GBP/EUR rates lower.

The dip was short lived however, when the UK fired off its Purchasing Managers construction data. This is important as it’s a leading indicator of economic health. The number impressed and was better than forecast, and as the chart shows, the dip was reversed and Pound/Euro rates climbed back to €1.21.

 

This clearly illustrates how important economic data is, and how it can affect exchange rates. So below I have listed the remaining data due this week, and my thoughts on how it could affect your currency requirement.

This week’s economic data that could affect exchange rates. 

Tuesday 3rd December

Today’s main data has already been released as outlined above. The rest of today is quiet, with only some minor economic optimism data from the United States.

Wednesday 4th December 

In the UK today we will see the latest Halifax House Prices, but more importantly Purchasing Managers Index services data. Like Monday’s release, it’s an important economic indicator. The forecast is 62.1, so anything above this will cause the Pound to gain, and vice versa.

Also potentially affecting GBP/EUR rates will be today’s Euro data. They fire their first salvo with Services PMI, followed a little later by Retail Sales and a revised GDP figure. These growth figures will be important and could alter rates if the numbers differ from forecast. GDP is expected to be 0.1% and retail sales 0.2%.

Elsewhere Trade Balance data from the States, Home sales and manufacturing data could all affect the GBP/USD rate which is currently $1.64.

Thursday 5th December 

The most important day of the week for Pound/Euro rates. We have the decisions from the Bank of England and European Central Bank on Interest Rates and Quantitative Easing. No change is expected, but both central banks will make statements after the decision, and these statements often hint at future policy which could then immediately affect exchange rates. Look for any hints of rates cuts by the ECB which could cause GBP/EUR to rise. We also have the Autumn statement by the chancellor, which could also affect the Pound if there are any surprises.

US Gross Domestic Product figures and Unemployment numbers will dictate the value of the US Dollar today, forecast at 3.0% and 328k respectively. As usual, numbers above this will cause GBP/USD to fall, numbers lower than this would cause rates to rise.

Friday 6th December 

Quiet in the UK today with Consumer Inflation the only data of note, and I don’t expect it to have much of an impact. Of more importance will be French Trade Balance numbers and German Factory Orders, but GBP/EUR will probably still be moving on the central bank statements from Thursday.

I do expect a volatile day for GBP/USD rates however. We have lots of important numbers from the states: Unemployment, Consumer Sentiment, Earnings and Income data. The most interesting release will be the Non-Farm Payrolls at 13:30pm. These are so difficult to forecast, the actual number is often very different to what’s expected. The forecast at the moment is 180,000 new jobs to have been created. More, GBP/USD will fall… less and expect GBP/USD to rise.

If you would like to discuss your currency requirement, have a free consultation.

Free consultation on your currency requirement

Hopefully today’s post has helped highlight how economic data can affect your exchange rate, and given you some things to look out for this week that might affect the currency you are interested in buying or selling.

I can offer you a free consultation over the telephone, to discuss your particular requirement and discuss the current exchange rates. I can also talk to you about data releases that might affect rates, and the different options you can consider when deciding when to fix your rate.

In addition when you decide to fix a rate, I can provide you a quote to compare with your bank or existing broker. You may be pleasantly surprised how good my rates are.

Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry today. 

Alastair Archbold

Sterling hits €1.21 but falls back away….

Monday 2nd December 2013 
Good afternoon. Well in my post late on Friday I highlighted the spike in Pound/Euro rates. This actually continued over the weekend, and when I arrived on the trading floor at 08:00am this morning mid-market levels were at an astonishing €1.2100, which is a remarkable run for this currency pair. The question is, will it last…?

Pound/Euro sustained above €1.20, for now…

As you can see from the chart showing todays movements, the market opened at €1.21. The levels were not to be sustained for long however, and throughout the day we saw the Pounds gains becoming eroded, and exchange rates have slipped away throughout the day. 

 

The market is still above the €1.20 mark however. The fact it has broken through this level has surprised many in the market, myself included, who did not expect rates to break €1.20 this year. I did however state in a recent post  that while I didn’t expect it to break through €1.20, if it did it would likely continue rising significantly above it, and that’s what we have seen happen.

What will happen moving forwards depends on this week’s economic data releases. Now levels are above €1.20 I expect them to be supported at that level, unless we get any suprises with the week’s economic data.

In today’s post I’ll simply give a brief outline of different strategies you can consider if you are converting foreign currency and need the best rates. In tomorrow’s post, I’ll list the week’s economic data releases that I think will affect exchange rates this week. 

Click here to have a free consultation for your requirement.  

Do you need to buy Euros at the best rates? 

Rates are very good indeed, and the best they’ve been since January; however seem to rise before dropping back away.

If I needed Euros I would place a Stop Loss order to fix a rate should it drop below a pre-agreed level. This means if rates continue to rise you can still take advantage of further gains, but not risk losing out on the 5% gain in rates we have seen in recent months. 

Click here to get a Pound/Euro quote

Perhaps you want to maximise a Euro to Pound transfer?

Rates have been steadily moving against you. It’s impossible to predict where things will go, so in the current climate a Stop Loss again is a very useful tool. 

This fixes your rate if it gets worse than a pre-agreed rate that you can decide, giving you some control over currency markets which are very volatile. 

I can also source Limit Orders, Forward Contracts, and Spot contracts at rates significantly better than banks and other financial institutions. 

Click here to get quote for selling Euros

Other Currencies 

Sterling is currently at the best level in many years against lots of major currencies, including the US Dollar, Euro, and also the antipodean currencies such as the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar. 

If you are looking for the best exchange rates for any major currency, or have a foreign currency you want to convert back to Sterling, then I can help you. 

In addition to the rates I can source that are up to 5% better than the banks, I have extensive knowledge of the currency markets, and various contract types that can protect you against rates moving the wrong way, and help you to budget. Very useful if you are buying or selling property abroad, or buy and sell goods in the Eurozone for example. 

Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry today. 

I look forward to hearing from you.

Alastair Archbold

Pound remains above €1.20 vs the Euro

Friday 29th November 2013
Good afternoon everyone. A quick update before the weekend to outline what’s been happening with exchange rates, and in particular the Pound/Euro exchange rate forecast.

BoE Governor causes Pound to rise above €1.20

Yesterday the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, gave a speech. You can read a report here on the BBC website that outlines what he talked about. Most of the press has been reporting on the move of the ‘Funding for Lending’ scheme which has been moved from individuals to small business. 

What we’re interested in however is what effect his words had on exchange rates. Mr Carney’s predecessor Mervyn King had a habit of ‘talking down’ the Pound to such an extent that usually as soon as he opened his mouth, Sterling fell before he had actually said anything!


Mr Carney in contrast seems to do exactly the opposite. In recent speeches his comments have been very UK positive and have therefore caused the Pound to rise. This is what we saw yesterday, and the Pound rose to over €1.20 again against the Euro, but this time rates remained just above this level all day on Thursday. 

What’s happened today to Sterling exchange rates?

Today, Sterling slipped from a 11-month high against the dollar and fell against the single currency as investors digested the Bank of England’s surprise move to scale back stimulus for the housing sector.

Initially, investors had concluded the Bank might be taking the first step towards tightening its ultra-loose monetary policy, and the pound rose. But some analysts said not using conventional monetary policy to curb housing prices meant interest rates could remain low for longer.

However in the last few minutes, Pound/Euro has shot up to €1.2022 and Pound/Dollar has risen to $1.6364. I put this down to profit taking: as the European markets closed at 4pm a few minutes ago, investors wound up their positions ahead of the weekend, causing a spike in the value of the Pound:

  
“Boom!”
  • So will these levels now be sustained against the Euro? 
  • Will rates drop back away as they have been doing over several weeks?


I’ll be back in action on Monday with a full analysis and round up of the future forecasts for exchange rates. 

In the meantime, if you’re looking for the best exchange rates, or would simply like to discuss the current market to help you decide when to convert your funds, then send me a free enquiry

The rates I can help you achieve can be up to 5% better than banks and other financial institutions, so by getting in touch you can save yourself a considerable sum. 

Click here to send me a free enquiry now. 

I look forward to hearing from you. Have a great weekend.

Alastair Archbold

Pound/Euro & Pound/Dollar exchange rate forecast

Wednesday 27th November 2013
There has been some volatility on the currency markets this week, with the Pound initially losing value causing exchange rates to drop. This trend however was reversed today after some strong UK data has given strength back to Sterling, pushing exchange rates up against other currencies. In today’s report, I’ll take a look at what’s been happening and the forecast for Pound/Euro and Pound/Dollar…

  • Bank of England takes dovish tone on UK economy 
  • UK GDP growth confirmed at 0.8% 
  • Pound/Euro forecast 
  • Pound/Dollar forecast
  • Best Exchange Rates

Bank of England takes dovish tone on UK economy  

On Tuesday the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney delivered his latest Inflation report. It’s important because the BoE control interest rates, which have a big effect on the value of Sterling, and therefore exchange rates. 

The Bank has said it will not consider an interest rate rise until UK unemployment falls below 7%, a rate that many economists now believe could happen sooner rather than later. However Mr Carney poured a little cold water on this yesterday, when he said that the 7% is a “threshold, not a trigger”. 

He said: “The exact timing of when that 7% threshold will be achieved is subject to uncertainty. We do our best to give our estimates of that uncertainty… One month’s unemployment figures does not have a material change on those likelihoods.” 

So while overall he was quite positive about the economy, these comments caused the Pound to fall to €1.19 vs. the Euro and $1.61 against the Dollar. We’ll look at each currency pair in more detail in a moment. 

UK GDP growth confirmed at 0.8% 

Before we look at the rate forecast, let’s review today’s data. This morning figures confirmed that UK growth is at 0.8%, according to figures released by the Office for National Statistics. The figure of 0.8% confirms the economy is growing at the fastest pace for three years. Read more about this on the BBC website here.

As the figure was as forecast, the immediate reaction was that the Pound fell. This was only momentary however, as clearly analysts quickly realised that while the number was as expected, it’s actually a very good number indeed! The UK is the fastest growing western economy at the moment, and so investors started to buy the Pound. 

This caused the Pound to rise, and recover its losses from earlier in the week. As I write this post, Pound/Euro is back at €1.20 and Pound/Dollar is at $1.63. So let’s take a detailed look at each currency pair. 

Contact me to find out more about getting the best currency rates.

Pound/Euro forecast

As you can see from the chart showing this year’s movements, the rate is looking good. 

 

It’s the best it’s been since January, and settled at around the €1.20 level. Over the last few weeks we’ve seen rates reach this level only to drop back away, for reasons I explained in a recent post. 

I expect this trend to continue for the rest of the year, and while it’s impossible to forecast, I don’t expect rates to breach this level this year. They will eventually, when the UK ecostats convince investors and the BoE that interest rates may have to rise. So if you need to buy Euros, consider taking advantage of the current level. Euro sellers may wish to consider a Stop Loss Order and hope the market retracts down. 

Want the best rates to buy or sell Euros? Click here. 

Pound/Dollar forecast

Again the chart clearly illustrates how good the Pound/Dollar rate is at the moment.

 

This is a 1 year chart, but rates haven’t been significantly above this for nearly 3 years! 

So again worth considering taking advantage of the current rates while they’re above $1.60. For Dollar sellers the direction is less clear, as we don’t know if or when the FED will start tapering their QE programme. 

Want the best rates to buy or sell Dollars? Click here.

Best exchange rates

http://www.foreignexchangerateforecasts.blogspot.co.uk/2009/01/contact-us.htmlIf you are looking for the best rates for Euros, Dollars, or indeed any major world currency, then send me a free enquiry today.

I am an expert foreign exchange, integrating market knowledge with a range of foreign currency contracts. I have great pride in the excellent rates of exchange I achieve for my clients, combined with exceptional customer service. 

Because I buy currency at wholesale prices, directly from the market, it enables me to pass on significant savings, often achieving up to a 5% better exchange rate than the banks. There are also no fees or commissions. 

So if the best exchange rates is something that is of interest, click below to find out more about what I can do for you. 

Click here to send me a free enquiry.

Alastair Archbold

Pound/Euro rates and the weeks economic data

Monday 25th November 2013
It’s been a quiet start to the week in the currency markets. The only data of note today was the latest UK Mortgage Approval numbers. These were slightly lower than expected, and so Sterling has fallen a little against the Euro and US Dollar.

Why haven’t rates broken the €1.20 mark?

As I predicted in my last post, Pound/Euro rates have again failed to break through the €1.20 level. As has been the case of late, it flirts around that level, before dropping back away. This is because at that level, it triggers lots of orders to buy. In turn this demand to buy Euros gives the single currency strength, and ultimately causes the rate to drop back away.

Moving forwards, I expect this to continue to be the case, dependant on how UK and EU economic data fares (see below). Should we get some further unexpected good news for the UK, we could see the €1.20 level breached. If we do, I’d expect it to keep pushing above this level. There is the risk however that if this were to happen, the Bank of England could move to weaken the Pound and bring rates lower. It’s not in the UK’s interest for exchange rates to be too high, so this is a risk you need to consider if you need to buy Euros. 

Pound/Euro remains very close to €1.20, and Pound/Dollar is between $1.61 and $1.62 – these levels are close to an all year high, so certainly worth discussing your requirements with me if you need to achieve the best exchange rates. 

Looking for the best exchange rates?

If you are looking to achieve the best possible exchange rates, want to discuss what might happen with exchange rates, or would like to discuss the different options available to you, then take the time to send me a free enquiry.

It’s free to make an enquiry, and you can then take advantage of a free consultation on what’s happening with the currency you are concerned with. In doing so you can make an informed decision on when to fix your rate, and the rates I can source for you are significantly better than banks can offer.

Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry today.

This weeks economic data releases.

As regular readers will be aware, economic data releases are the main cause of exchange rate movements. 

Below I list this weeks releases that I think will have an effect on exchange rates this week. To discuss how this could affect you in more detail, contact me here.

Monday – Today has been relatively quiet, with UK mortgage approvals the only data of note. The numbers were slightly worse than forecast, pulling Sterling a little lower against other currencies. 

Tuesday – Again not very busy in terms of things that could affect GBP/EUR rates. The only UK data of interest is an Inflation report at 10am. All the other data today is from the United States: Building and Housing data, Consumer Confidence numbers, and some manufacturing data, all of which could affect GBP/USD exchange rates. 

Wednesday – In my opinion today is the one most likely to cause some volatility with exchange rates, as we have an important release from Britain in the latest GDP estimate. This will show the estimate for growth, which is expected to be 0.8%. Any lower than this and the Pound may fall, and vice versa. We also have lots of US data today: Unemployment, Consumer Sentiment, and inflation data. So expect today to cause a few changes in exchange rates. 

Thursday – Today could again be important for exchange rates, as we have a report on Financial Stability from the Bank of England, and also a speech from the BoE Governor Mark Carny. In recent times when he has spoken, the Pound has gained in value so it will be interesting to see if that’s the case again. 

In Europe, we have Import Prices and Unemployment data from Germany. As Germany is the EU’s largest economy, the numbers could affect Pound/Euro rates. It’s Thanksgiving in the USA so things will be very quiet across the Pond. 

Friday – Today in the UK we will see Consumer Confidence measures along with house prices data and mortgage approvals. In the EU it’s also busy with German Retail Sales, French and Italian unemployment figures, and EU wide unemployment, so Pound/Euro rates will be the one to watch today. 

Click here to send me a free enquiry today. 

GBP/AUD at 3 Year High at1.76 – GBP/EUR tests 1.20 and GBP/USD hits 1.62

Good morning,

Sterling’s Super-set continues:

  • GBP/AUD up through 1.76
  • GBP/USD at 1.62
  • GBP/EUR holding around 1.20

 
Well it happened; the GBP/AUD rate lost ground and weakened on the back of worse Chinese Manufacturing data last night which was 0.5% lower than forecast. The fall out from the RBA minutes on Wednesday continued after Glen Stevens (Head of the Reserve Bank of Australia) hinted that foreign exchange intervention could be an option if the currency remains inflated.
 
If you are looking to buy Australian Dollars now could be the opportunity to take the gain you have seen since the start of the summer. If you would like to cash in but still safe guard a rate, why not use a Stop Loss contract to try and track the market as it moves up. Once we see a substantial drop the Stop Loss would trigger and your currency would be secured just off the high.
 
To make the most out of your funds click here.
 


GBP/AUD NEAR A 3 YEAR HIGH
 
 

The Pound itself has gained ground against the EUR, USD and NZD and does look as if this could continue; as it’s growth and borrowing forecasts manage to stay on target. We had better Public sector borrowing figures and a pick-up in housing giving Sterling the added boost it might have needed to get back over 1.20 against the Euro (however short lived).

Even if the England RFU team couldn’t beat the All Blacks last weekend we hold our breath to see whether the Rugby League (Northern contingent) will be able to pull there socks up and grit it out to send the Kiwi’s packing. Personally I predict England to win by 4-6 points but only time will tell especially against the “Mercenary” Sonny Bill Williams.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-league/25036184


The same could be said for the battle between Sterling and the Australian Dollar as the RBA might try to artificially weaken the AUD to help promote exports and growth to counteract the recent dip in Chinese manufacturing. Artificially weakening the currency will cause the rate to increase but would help overall Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in an effort to bump start the Australian economy.

If you would prefer to talk through your options please feel free to give me a quick call – 01442 892072 or email – [email protected].


If you are looking to make the most out of your funds or discuss your options when it comes to currency exchange; take the next step and send us a free enquiry and have a consultation on all the options available to you. It’s free, it doesn’t obligate you, and you may be surprised how much you can save by using us to get exchange rates that are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Complete the enquiry form on the right to send a free enquiry now.
 
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Pound gains against the Euro and Aussie breaking through 1.20 and 1.73 respectively.

Good morning,

As you can see on the graph the GBP/AUD rate is continuing to move in the buyers favour as the Pound gains ground on the Aussie. The rates continued to do so through the evening as the rate broke through into the 1.73’s on the mid-market.

To make the most out of your funds click here.


Sterling gaining against the Aussie yesterday.

There has been a lack of data out of Australia this week with no real significant releases to note so Sterling has had the opportunity to flex it’s muscles before the all important speech from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens today. There should be a good amount of volatility today with Public Finances and Net Borrowing for the UK so watch this space on how the rates move.
The Pound has been the best performer of late as the USD continues to stay around the 1.60 mark and the GBP/AUD has broken through 1.73; how long this will continue might be down to next quarters GDP figures for the UK or even when the US will start to taper there QE programme.

With the possibility of a negative deposit rate cut for the Euro banks over the coming months everything is up in the air and there is a possibility that the Euro could be in for a rough ride.

If you would prefer to talk through your options please feel free to give me a quick call – 01442 892072 or email – [email protected] 

Whatever currency you are transferring or looking to convert feel free to get in contact to discuss your options. It’s free, it doesn’t obligate you, and you may be surprised how much you can save by using us to get exchange rates that are up to 5% better than offered by banks. 

Make a free enquiry now.

Regards

Steven Worrall
Currency Broker

Pound/Euro rises to €1.20 on ECB rate cut hint

Wednesday 20th November 2013 
So the Bank of England news this morning was a bit of a damp squib, with all 9 members voting to hold QE and interest rates, so didn’t have much effect on exchange rates. 

However, the Pound/Euro rate has shot back up to €1.20 this afternoon, after a surprise indication that the European Central Bank may cut the deposit rate to negative. So in today’s post I’m going to explain why this has caused the rate to go up, and analyse whether it will keep rising or drop back away. 

Pound/Euro rates shoot up to €1.20 

A report from Bloomberg this afternoon hinted that the European Central Bank may reduce the deposit rate to negative. 

This effectively means that commercial lenders that deposit funds with the ECB getting less return, or even potentially have to pay to lodge funds with them. These rumours caused investors to sell the Euro, and this has caused it to weaken and become cheaper to buy. 

As you can see from the chart above, there was an immediate reaction to the news, and Pound/Euro rates climbed to €1.20, a cent higher than we started the day. What is interesting is that this is not a scheduled release, which is usually what causes exchange rates to move, as I outlined in my last post.

This shows that while it’s usually scheduled data releases that move the rate, surprises like this can also have an immediate effect.

For those that need to buy Euros, this is great news as the rate is now back to the highest it has been since January. Of course the key question is whether the rate will continue to climb, or drop back away. 

Will rates keep rising or drop back away?

This is impossible to forecast of course, but in my view these gains will not be sustained. We have seen the rate hit €1.20 several times in recent weeks, however each and every time this happens, the gains are short lived, the Euro fights back and the exchange rate drops again. 

This is partly due to the fact this is a key technical level, at which many automatic orders to buy Euros are triggered. As the market is then buying Euros again, it gives it strength and the rate drops away. 

Another reason I think rates could drop back is that the Bank of England don’t want a high exchange rate – it makes exports more expensive and so should rates hold firm above this level, we may see the BoE move to weaken the Pound to bring rates back in check. 

Indeed since we hit €1.20 at about 4pm this afternoon, rates have remained there and have failed to rise further. 

Click here to send me a free enquiry on exchange rates

If you are buying Euros 

Consider taking advantage of the best rates all year. Even if you don’t need your funds for some time, you can fix today’s rates for up to 2 years, and only lodge 10% of the total you want to convert. 

This protects you against rates falling, and allows you to budget effectively. Especially useful if you need Euros to buy property abroad or to pay for goods from the Eurozone.

Get a GBP/EUR quote.

If you have Euros to move back to Pounds 

For those selling Euros, the rate has moved against you. As we may see rates drop back away, I would place a ‘Stop Loss’ order that protects you should the market keep rising, but allow you to take advantage if the rate moves back down.

This gives you a worst case scenario and again allows effective budgeting without leaving things to chance.

Get a EUR/GBP quote.

If you need great exchange rates make a free enquiry today. 

Regardless which currency you need to convert, I can help you achieve excellent exchange rates that can be significantly better than your bank or existing broker may offer. Make a free enquiry with me by following the link below, and find out more about the service and rates I can offer. 

Click here to send me a free enquiry 

Alastair Archbold