The Pound initially found success this week before cooling inflation and contracting retail sales stifled GBP’s upside potential.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar plummeted as a softer-than-forecast consumer price index saw markets scale back bets on another Federal Reserve interest rate hike.
Pound Undermined by Cooler Inflation Figures
GBP/EUR – Unchanged on the week’s opening levels
GBP/USD – Up by two cents on the week’s opening levels
The Pound strengthened through the first half of the week as a risk-on market mood and stronger-than-forecast UK jobs data both boosted GBP exchange rates.
However, Sterling then slumped midweek after UK inflation cooled more than forecast, thereby dampening Bank of England (BoE) rate hike bets. A shock contraction in UK retail sales added to the Pound’s woes.
The focus next week is the UK Treasury’s Autumn Statement. The Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has said that this will be a plan to boost growth. If markets believe the measures introduced will help the UK economy, Sterling could climb.
Euro Fluctuates amid Shifting Sentiment
EUR/GBP – Unchanged on the week’s opening levels
EUR/USD – Up two cents on the week’s opening levels
The Euro faced mixed movement early in the week. A risk-on mood pressured the safer single currency while a larger-than-forecast improvement in German economic sentiment supported EUR.
A souring mood later in the week lent the Euro support, as did the currency’s negative correlation with a weakening US Dollar. However, the mood improved once again and Eurozone inflation was confirmed to have fallen sharply last month. This saw EUR stumble at the end of the week.
Looking ahead, the Eurozone’s latest PMI reports are in the spotlight next week. An ongoing contraction in business activity could raise recession fears in the bloc, which in turn could dent EUR.
US Dollar Crashes as Inflation Cools
USD/GBP – Down over a penny on the week’s opening levels
USD/EUR – Down over a cent on the week’s opening levels
The US Dollar plunged to two-month lows this week after the latest American consumer price index printed below expectations.
Both headline and core inflation cooled more than forecast, which cemented bets that the Federal Reserve has already reached the end of its recent rate hiking cycle. Rising jobless claims and declining US retail sales also dented the US Dollar.
Turning to next week’s session, the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision are due out. If these reinforce speculation that the Fed is finished raising rates, the ‘Greenback’ could come under fresh pressure.
Australian Dollar Rallies amid Risk-Positive Trade
AUD/GBP – Up half a penny on the week’s opening levels
AUD/USD – Up over a cent on the week’s opening levels
The Australian Dollar strengthened this week, as an optimistic market mood saw investors flock to the risk-sensitive currency.
Some downbeat Australian data, including rising unemployment and falling consumer confidence, triggered volatility in AUD. However, the ‘Aussie’ was able to climb higher overall amid the risk-on mood.
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest meeting minutes are due out next week, along with speeches from RBA Governor Michele Bullock. Could a hawkish tilt see the ‘Aussie’ climb again?
Nov 20 GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speech
Nov 21 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Nov 21 USD FOMC Minutes
Nov 22 AUD RBA Bullock Speech
Nov 22 USD Durable Goods Orders (Oct)
Nov 22 USD Initial Jobless Claims (18/Nov)
Nov 22 GBP Autumn Statement
Nov 23 EUR PMIs (Nov)
Nov 23 GBP PMIs (Nov)
Nov 24 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speech
Nov 24 EUR DE Ifo Business Climate (Nov)
Nov 24 USD PMIs (Nov)