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EUR/CAD remains around 1.50 following French election

The much anticipated French election has caused a great deal of volatility lately, as popularity swung between the main parties. As we approached the eleventh hour, it was becoming clear that the Far Right Party and Le Pen, was trailing behind her rival Emmanuel Macron.

Macron was seen as the safer candidate, as Le Pen may have sort abandon the Euro and possible spell an end to the EU as a whole.

When the results came in late in Sunday the exchange rates, although stuttering briefly, remained around 1.50, mid market. Many believed the Euro would strengthen hugely against its counterparts if Macron took victory. This is the reason we have seen such large gains over the past few weeks, therefore when this actually became a reality, it was already priced into the market and the effects were muted.

GBP/CAD graph

Back to Brexit

Now the French and Dutch elections are over and any chance of an anti EU party getting into power have been squashed, the focus will be firmly back on Brexit for those considering moving money in or out of the UK.

The Pound had some relief recently, as the local elections showed a clear majority for the conservatives. Although this could be a false representation of the up and coming general election result, it seems likely they should have a clear victory.

As Teresa May, is currently viewed as the best person to enter Brexit negotiations, this is seen as positive for the Pound.
If you have an up and coming requirement, stay in close contact with your FCG account manager, as the GBP/CAD exchange rates could remain volatile as negotiations progress.resa May is deemed to be the best person to deal with it.

This week’s Canadian data and Oil markets

There is only a scattering of minor data from Canada this week, so all movements are likely to be caused by continued political events and a volatile Oil market.

The oil markets are still finding it hard to stabilize, causing continued problems for the Loonie. Last week the price of Crude Oil dropped further to around $46 a barrel before recovering slightly to above $49 a barrel late Friday.

Oil prices are still near the lowest levels since the OPEC group decided to try and tackle the problems by cutting output last November. They are currently down around 15% so far in 2017, so this is likely to weigh on the price of the Canadian Dollar for some time to come.

Looking at the economic data for the week, Canadian Housing Starts missed the forecasts this morning, showing only 214k new homes being built.

Tomorrow we will see the latest building permits figures and the only other data from Canada will be new home price Index on Thursday. Like today’s data, it is not likely to have a large effect on the currency markets.

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Richard Beaumont - EUR/CAD remains around 1.50 following French electionWritten by:
Richard Beaumont
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