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GBP/AUD Exchange Rate Flat as Aussie Retail Sales Disappoint

Last week’s high: AU$1.8166

Last week’s low:  AU$1.7859

Australian Dollar Flat as Investors Fret Over a Third RBA Rate Cut

The Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate slumped at the start of the week following an agreement between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping to resume trade talks.

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) slashed interest rates for the second month in a row to a fresh record low of 1%.

This was the first back-to-back interest rate cut since 2012, but the move had already been priced into the market and had little impact on the ‘Aussie’.

Meanwhile, Brexit uncertainty left the UK private sector under pressure as data revealed the UK composite PMI shrank for the first time since the summer of 2016.

GBP/AUD recouped some losses at the end of the week as Australian retail sales rose by a lower-than-expected 0.1% and job vacancies fell from record highs, adding to fears that the RBA may cut rates for a third time this year.

AUD Outlook: Disappointing Consumer Confidence to Weigh on AUD?

The Australian Dollar could be provided with an upswing of support on Tuesday following the release of the National Australia Bank’s (NAB) business confidence report.

If business confidence rises more than forecast the ‘Aussie’ could edge higher.

Added to this, if reports suggest that US-China trade talks are making progress, a rise in risk appetite could buoy the Australian Dollar.

Meanwhile, on Wednesday Westpac’s consumer confidence could weigh on AUD if confidence slides further than expected in July.

At the end of this week the ‘Aussie’ could be under pressure following the release of the Australian home loans data.

If the number of home loans falls lower than expected it could weigh on AUD.

Key Events

9th July

02:30   AUD NAB Business Confidence (June)

10th July

01:30   AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (July)

09:30   GBP GDP (May)

09:30   GBP Industrial Production (May)

09:30   GBP Manufacturing Production (May)

09:30   GBP Construction Output (May)

 

11th July

00:01   GBP RICS House Price Balance (June)

02:00   AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)

02:30   AUD Home Loans (May)

09:00   GBP BoE Financial Stability Report

Alastair Archbold
Currency Trader
T: 01442 892 062

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