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GBP/EUR Exchange Rate Fluctuates at the Start of 2019

Last week’s high: €1.1195

Last week’s low: €1.0988

Pound Losses Out Amid Flash Crash

The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate traded in a wide range last week, largely due to a mini flash crash that rattled currency markets.

However the run up to the crash also saw volatility in the pairing, with thin trade over the New Year period leading to some notable swings in GBP/EUR, while markets appeared unimpressed by the UK’s latest manufacturing PMI.

Meanwhile, the Euro softened at the end of the week, with the Eurozone’s services PMI confirmed to have struck a four-year low in December while Eurozone inflation was shown to have slowed sharply over the same period.

EUR Outlook: Brexit Jitters to Return with a Vengeance?

Looking to the week ahead, with the majority of UK data focused at the tail end of the week, Brexit uncertainty may dominate movement in the GBP/EUR exchange rate through much of the session.

This may see Sterling struggle through the week amid speculation Theresa May’s Brexit deal will still be rejected by MPs this month despite the PM’s efforts to salvage it.

In terms of data, the release of the UK’s latest trade and GDP figures could offer some relief on Friday if November’s readings improve in line with expectations.

Meanwhile, there will be a slew of Eurozone data for EUR investors to pick over this week, with the bloc’s retail sales and unemployment figures potentially lifting the Euro in the first half of the session.


Key Events

7th January

07:00 DE Factory Orders (Nov)

07:00 DE Construction PMI (Dec)

10:00 EU Retail Sales (Nov)

8th January

07:00 DE Industrial Production (Nov)

10:00 EU Business Confidence (Dec)

9th January

07:00 DE Trade Balance (Nov)

10:00 EU Unemployment Rate (Nov)

10th January

12:30 EU ECB Minutes

11 January

09:30 GB Trade Balance (Nov)

09:30 GB Industrial Production (Nov)

09:30 GB GDP (Nov)

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To keep up to date with the Euro, visit the EUR blog in our Currency News section.


Alastair Archbold

Foreign Exchange Manager

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