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GBP/USD Exchange Rate Edges Up despite Storming US GDP Print

Last week’s high: $1.3013

Last week’s low: $1.2869


US Dollar Falls as Q1 US GDP Accelerates

The start of last week saw the Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate slide as Washington announced all waivers on imports of sanctioned Iranian oil would be ending.

The pairing continued to fall despite a statement from the White House revealing that US Trade Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer will travel to Beijing for further face-to-face talks on 30 April.

Towards the end of the week, the pairing continued to slump as cross-party Brexit talks continued to make little progress, dampening sentiment in Sterling.

Meanwhile the US Dollar rose close to a two-year high against rivals as data indicated the US economy was outperforming other countries.

However, US jobless claims saw their largest weekly gain in 19 months.

Despite this, the underlying trend emphasised the strength of the US labour market, buoying the ‘Greenback’.

On Friday, the preliminary US GDP rose to a higher-than-forecast 3.2% in the first quarter of 2019.

However, despite the unexpectedly strong data the GBP/USD exchange rate rose on concerns that much of the strength could be explained by inventory building.


USD Outlook: Will a Dovish Federal Reserve Weigh on the Dollar?

The US Dollar could slip against the Pound towards the end of the week following the release of the ISM manufacturing PMI.

If April’s PMI edges lower, sentiment in the ‘Greenback’ could slip.

The Federal Reserve is also due to make its latest interest rate decision, although no changes are forecast.

Nevertheless, if the Fed’s monetary policy statement is considerably dovish despite the recent better-than-forecast US data, the US Dollar could fall.

The US Dollar could rise against the Pound at the end of this week following the release of the US average hourly earnings.

If annual earnings rise as expected in April, it could cause the Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate to fall.


Key Events

29th April

13:30   USD Personal Spending (March)


30th April

14:45   USD Chicago PMI (April)

15:00   USD Consumer Confidence


1st May

09:30   GBP Markit Manufacturing PMI (April)

15:00   USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (April)

19:00   USD Fed Interest Rate Decision

19:00   USD Fed Monetary Policy Statement


2nd May

12:00   GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision

12:00   GBP BoE Minutes

13:30   USD Non-farm Productivity (Q4)


3rd May

09:30   GBP Markit Services PMI (April)

13:30   USD Average Hourly Earnings (April)

13:30   USD Non-Farm Payrolls (April)

15:00   USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (April)


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To keep up to date with the US Dollar, visit the USD blog in our Currency News section.


Alastair Archbold

Foreign Exchange Manager

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