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GBP/EUR Exchange Rate Falls, Brexit Continues to Pressure the Pound

Last week’s high: EU$1.1384

Last week’s low: EU$1.1254

Euro Soars as EU Reaches Deal on Migration

The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate trended lower last week with the Pound coming under constant pressure due to renewed fears regarding Brexit and Theresa May being warned that time was running out to reach an agreement with the EU.

Further weakening Sterling sentiment was the first public appearance of the Bank of England’s newest member, Jonathan Haskel, with markets fearing his appointment could set the bank on a more dovish course.

The most dramatic movement in GBP/EUR came at the end of the week however, with the Euro shooting higher as EU leaders agreed to a deal on migration, quelling fears that the issue could undermine the stability of the union.

Helping the Pound regain some of this ground was the publication of the UK’s latest GDP reading, with growth being revised up from 0.1% to 0.2% in the first quarter.

EUR Outlook: Slowdown in UK PMI Data to Drag on Sterling?

Looking ahead, the GBP/EUR exchange rate may struggle to find its footing at the start of this week’s session as the UK publishes its latest PMI figures.

Current forecasts suggest June’s data will see activity in the UK’s private sector begin to slow again, likely limiting the UK’s second quarter growth potential and dragging on the Pound.

Meanwhile the Eurozone’s own PMI figures are expected to be more supportive of the euro, with the final readings expected to confirm growth picked up this month after slowing for four consecutive months.

Also potentially lifting the EUR exchange rate may be an expected rebound in Germany’s industrial production figures on Friday.

Key Events

2nd July

09:00 EU Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

09:30 GB Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

10:00 EU Unemployment Rate (May)

3rd July

09:30 UK Construction PMI (Jun)

10:00 EU Retail Sales (May)

4th July

09:00 EU Services PMI (Jun)

09:30 UK Services PMI (Jun)

5th July

07:00 DE Factory Orders (May)

6th July DE Industrial Production (May)


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To keep up to date with the Euro, visit the EUR blog in our Currency News section.

Alastair Archbold

Currency Dealer

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