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GBP/NZD Remains Strong on Brexit Hopes

Yesterday’s high: NZ$1.9445

Yesterday’s low: NZ$1.9319

Pound Advances on Brexit and Budget Hopes

Despite poor UK data for most of last week, reduced demand for risk-correlated currencies made it easy for the Pound to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate to advance. The pair was able to hold most of last week’s gains on Monday as Sterling firmed on market expectations for the week’s upcoming news.

While there are likely to be clashes in the UK government on the Brexit ‘divorce bill’, more senior officials have shown a willingness to raise the divorce bill offer in order to speed up UK-EU Brexit negotiations.

Markets are also anticipating UK Chancellor Philip Hammond’s Autumn Budget, which will be delivered on Wednesday. Analysts speculate that Hammond will offer some relief to UK consumers after months of higher inflation and slower wage growth have caused a ‘pay squeeze’.

NZD Outlook: Dairy Price News Ahead

Pound trade is likely to remain focused on Brexit and Budget news in the coming days. Any signs of progress on the Brexit ‘divorce bill’ would likely lead to a surge in Sterling, and the Pound could also be buoyed if the Budget impresses investors.

The second November Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction could also affect GBP/NZD today. As dairy is New Zealand’s most lucrative commodity, an increase in dairy prices could strengthen the ‘Kiwi’.

However, if markets continue to find risk-correlated currencies unappealing the New Zealand Dollar may remain weak against the Pound.

Key Events

21st November

09:30 UK Public Sector Net Borrowing

NZ Global Dairy Trade Price Index

22nd November

UK Autumn Budget

23rd November

NZ Retail Sales

09:30 UK Growth Rate

24th November

NZ Balance of Trade

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To keep up to date with the New Zealand Dollar, visit the NZD blog in our Currency News section.

Joe Mayhew

Senior Currency Broker
T: 01442 892 060

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