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GBP/USD Exchange Rate may Slide on US Strength

Friday’s high: $1.3113

Friday’s low: $1.3026

Week of Woe: May Speech saw GBP/USD Plummet

Like the Prime Minister, the Pound was plagued with problems last week. The problems led to GBP/USD opening the week at $1.3389 and closing 3 cents lower at 1.3044.

Traders were initially unsettled when UK construction was reported to have contracted in September. While there was some services sector growth, the negative implications for the housing shortage proved overwhelming.

The other bad news was PM Theresa May’s problem-riddled speech at the Conservative Party Conference. The main issues were May’s persistent cough, the intrusion of a comedian and letters from a party message falling off the wall behind May. While Conservative stalwarts praised the PM for soldiering through to the end, there were soon rumours that a group was aiming to oust the PM due to her poor performance.

In US news, support came from growing hopes of a December interest rate hike, following a string of hawkish statements from Fed policymakers.

USD Outlook: Fed Minutes could Cement GBP/USD Decline

The US Dollar had a clear advantage against the Pound last week as most US data impressed.

The only UK ecostats to speak of are Tuesday’s trade balance measure and construction stats. The high-impact trade figure is forecast to show a deficit expansion of almost £2bn.

US news will include Fed minutes and inflation and sales data. The minutes might give a strong hint towards a December rate hike, while forecasts are positive for US inflation and reported retail sales.

Key Events

10th October

09:30 UK Balance of Trade

09:30 UK Manufacturing Production

09:30 UK Industrial Production

09:30 UK Construction Output

11th October

19:00 US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes

13th October

13:30 US Inflation Rate

13:30 US Retail Sales

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To keep up to date with the US Dollar, visit the USD blog in our Currency News section.

Arron Morris


Senior Currency Broker
T: 01442 892 065

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