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Higher Oil Prices and US-China Trade Hopes Limit GBP/CAD Recovery

Last week’s high: C$1.7055

Last week’s low: C$1.6774


Canadian Dollar Benefits from Risk-Sentiment amid Brexit Uncertainties Keeping Pressure on Sterling

The Pound to Canadian Dollar spent most of last week tumbling, but put in a notable recovery before markets closed for the week in response to the latest Brexit speculation.

Demand for Sterling was driven higher by a report claiming that UK ministers were increasingly doubting that there would be enough time to complete the Brexit process in time for the formal leaving date of 29 March – even if the government’s deal is passed.

The report bolstered market speculation that the leaving date could be officially delayed. There was even some speculation that Brexit could be cancelled altogether. This caused the Pound to rise at the end of the week.

Sterling was unable to recover all of its weekly losses against a stronger Canadian Dollar however. CAD saw stronger demand throughout the week, as US-China trade developments and lower Federal Reserve interest rate hike bets made investors more willing to buy riskier trade-correlated currencies.

The price of oil also strengthened, supporting CAD last week.


CAD Outlook: Brexit Outlook to Develop amid Pivotal Week for Politics and Pound

While some influential Canadian data will be published next week that could influence the Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate, markets will largely be focused on UK politics amid one of the most pivotal weeks yet for the Brexit process.

Parliament will finally hold its anticipated vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal on Tuesday.

The outcome of the vote will lead to the next steps of the Brexit process. If it succeeds, the government’s soft Brexit will go ahead – but most analysts predict it will be blocked. This will leave the government under pressure to come up with an alternative plan, and could also leave MPs with more say over how Brexit will proceed from this point.

It is likely to be a highly significant week for the Pound outlook. The results and surrounding speculation will drive the Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate.

The Canadian Dollar may also be influenced by US-China trade developments and risk-sentiment, as well as Friday’s Canadian inflation results.


Key Events

15th January

UK Parliament Vote on Brexit Deal

13:30 Canadian New Motor Vehicle Sales

16th January

09:30 UK Inflation Rate

18th January

09:30 UK Retail Sales

13:30 Canadian ADP Employment Change

13:30 Canadian Inflation Rate


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To keep up to date with the Canadian Dollar, visit the CAD blog in our Currency News section.

Alastair Archbold

Foreign Exchange Manager


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