Pound News: GBP Supported by Signs of Irish Support
Ireland came to the Pound’s rescue yesterday, with reports of Irish government support for a UK-wide customs deal causing all-round GBP exchange rate gains.
The hope was that this would be the much-needed breakthrough in Brexit talks on the Irish border, with the Irish proposal representing an immediate solution to post-Brexit trade.
The next news that could directly influence Pound exchange rates will come on 10 October, in the form of GDP growth rate figures.
Current estimates are for a rise from 0.3% to 0.4%, which while small could still cause midweek GBP exchange rate gains.
Euro News: EUR Weakened by Sliding German Construction Stats
A disappointing drop in German construction output cause Euro to Pound exchange rate losses yesterday, with September’s PMI falling from 51.5 points to 50.2.
This went against forecasts for a rise to 52.9 points and put German construction activity dangerously close to the sub-50 point contraction range.
The next Eurozone data isn’t due until the coming Monday, but could cause early EUR/GBP exchange rate gains if it prints as forecast.
German industrial production stats are set to show a major recovery during August – an as-expected shift from -1.1% to 0.5% could push the Euro up against the Pound.
US Dollar News: USD/GBP Losses Seen despite Strong Orders Data
The US Dollar slipped against the Pound yesterday; the afternoon’s highly positive US data failed to bring USD/GBP gains.
Factory orders in August were reported higher than forecast, with a sharp rise from -0.5% to 2.3%.
This afternoon will bring the week’s last major US data, consisting of a trade balance reading, non-farm payrolls figures and unemployment rate stats.
The US’s trade deficit is expected to have grown, but a higher payrolls reading (indicating more persons in work) and a lower unemployment rate could trigger USD/GBP exchange rate gains.
Canadian Dollar News: CAD Damaged by Plunging PMI Figure
The Pound rose sharply against the Canadian Dollar on Thursday, thanks to a highly disappointing Canadian PMI reading.
The Ivey PMI, which serves as a health measure for Canadian business, plummeted from 61.9 points to 50.4 in September, far below the expected 62.3 point reading.
As in the US, there will also be Canadian data releases out this afternoon; these figures will cover Canada’s trade balance and unemployment rate stats.
If the data prints as forecast then the Canadian Dollar could rise against the Pound – a smaller trade deficit is expected along with stats showing higher employment.
Australian Dollar News: AUD in Low Demand despite Better Trade Balance
News of a growing Australian trade surplus failed to support the Australian Dollar yesterday, with AUD/GBP exchange rate losses being seen throughout the day.
Looking ahead to the coming week, the Australian Dollar could trade higher against the Pound on Tuesday when NAB’s business confidence reading comes out.
This is tipped to rise from 4 points to 5, which could lead to Australian Dollar to Pound exchange rate gains.
Friday, 5 October, 2018
13:30 CA Balance of Trade (Aug)
13:30 CA Employment Change (Sep)
13:30 CA Unemployment Rate (Sep)
13:30 US Balance of Trade (Aug)
13:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls (Sep)
13:30 US Unemployment Rate (Sep)
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