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Pound US Dollar Exchange Rate Slips from 9-Month High amid Brexit Uncertainty

Last week’s high: $1.3343

Last week’s low: $1.2956


GBP/USD Exchange Rate Hit 9-Month High as No-Deal Brexit Odds Plunged

As Parliament voted to rule out a no-deal Brexit this helped the GBP/USD exchange rate to climb to its best level since June.

However, the Pound struggled to hold onto this boost for long as the sense of uncertainty surrounding Brexit failed to ease.

With Theresa May set to put her rejected Brexit deal back to MPs this week, for the third ‘meaningful vote’, the mood towards the Pound soon soured.

As February’s US consumer price index data fell short of expectations this put fresh pressure on the US Dollar, meanwhile.

While CPI is not the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation investors were still discouraged by this evidence that price pressures are failing to mount.

An increase in jobless claims also dented the appeal of the US Dollar, with confidence in the underlying health of the US economy continuing to fade.

Even so, this was not enough to keep the GBP/USD exchange rate on a stronger footing ahead of the weekend.


USD Outlook: Signs of Federal Reserve Dovishness May Limit USD Strength

No change in policy is expected at the Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting this week.

However, this could still provoke volatility for USD exchange rates if policymakers show increased signs of dovishness.

Any indication that the US central bank is likely to leave interest rates on hold for longer would limit support for the US Dollar.

With the prospect of an imminent US-China trade agreement fading, though, USD exchange rates could still benefit from an increase in market risk aversion.

The Pound, meanwhile, looks set to remain under pressure in the days ahead as speculation over Brexit continues.

Further GBP/USD exchange rate weakness may also be in store on the back of Thursday’s Bank of England (BoE) meeting minutes and policy announcement.


Key Events

19th March

09:30   UK Average Weekly Earnings

09:30   UK Unemployment Rate

14:00   US Factory Orders

20th March

09:30   UK Consumer Price Index

18:00   Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision

21st March

09:30   UK Retail Sales

12:00   Bank of England Rate Decision


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To keep up to date with the US Dollar, visit the USD blog in our Currency News section.


Alastair Archbold

Foreign Exchange Manager

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