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Pound US Dollar Weakness Limited by Shockingly Poor Payrolls Report

Last week’s high: $1.3277

Last week’s low: $1.3055

Terrible Non-Farm Payrolls Leave US Dollar under Pressure

As February’s US non-farm payrolls report fell significantly short of forecasts this left the US Dollar under pressure ahead of the weekend.

Investors were not impressed by news that just 20,000 new jobs had been added to the US economy last month, as opposed to forecasts of 180,000.

This figure was a sharp decline on January’s strong level of jobs growth, even though the overall unemployment rate still fell on the month.

With the global economy showing increasing signs of strain as a result of the US-China trade dispute, confidence in the underlying strength of the US economy waned.

Even so, this was not enough to prevent the GBP/USD exchange rate trending lower as worries over Brexit intensified once again.

With officials failing to make progress on the issue of the Irish border the appeal of the Pound proved limited, keeping GBP exchange rates on the back foot.


USD Outlook: Retail Sales Rebound to Boost US Dollar

As forecasts point towards a rebound in US retail sales on the month, this could encourage the US Dollar to recover some of its lost ground on Tuesday.

Signs of increased consumer spending and confidence may help to shore up USD exchange rates, with stronger domestic demand likely to support economic growth.

A steady showing from the latest consumer price index may offer investors incentive to favour the US Dollar, even though CPI is not the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

Deteriorating market risk appetite may give USD exchange rates additional support, meanwhile.

Confidence in the Pound could diminish further on Tuesday if January’s UK gross domestic product data disappoints.

Any fresh signs of a slowdown within the UK economy may weigh heavily on GBP exchange rates, with the potential for growth looking limited in the face of Brexit-based uncertainty.

A widened UK trade deficit could also dent the GBP/USD exchange rate.


Key Events

11th March

12:30   US Advance Retail Sales

12th March

09:30   UK Trade Balance

09:30   UK Gross Domestic Product

12:30   US Consumer Price Index

13th March

12:30   US Durable Goods Orders


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To keep up to date with the US Dollar, visit the USD blog in our Currency News section.


Alastair Archbold

Foreign Exchange Manager

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