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Speculation over Long Brexit Delay ahead of Emergency EU Summit and ECB Rate Decision

Pound News: Could a Long Brexit Delay be Confirmed?

Demand for the Pound was volatile yesterday, as investors awaited news of a Brexit delay, with the process hanging in the balance. Fears that the UK could see a no-deal Brexit at the end of the week kept pressure on the British currency.

Throughout the day, signs grew that the EU was prepared to offer the UK a Brexit delay until at least the end of 2019, rather than the shorter delay the UK government had been pressing for. This would mean a longer period of uncertainty, which is also limiting Pound appeal.

Today is likely to be the day on which a Brexit delay is decided, as the EU summit will take place this evening. Confirmation of a Brexit delay may offer Sterling some support, but market focus is likely to turn back towards domestic attempts to pass Brexit through Parliament.


Euro News: Shared Currency Steadies Ahead of European Central Bank (ECB)

Despite a lack of fresh support for the Euro yesterday, the shared currency saw steadier movement and avoided major losses against its rivals. Investors anticipated today’s upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) policy decision, and were hesitant to move much on the shared currency as a result.

Still, the Euro remained under a lot of pressure due to recent weakness in Eurozone data. Investors are also anxious about fresh US-EU trade tensions, as the US has indicated it could introduce new EU trade tariffs.

Euro investors are now gearing up for the ECB’s April policy decision, which will be held this afternoon. A more cautious tone from the bank could lead to further Euro weakness.


US Dollar News: USD Remains Unappealing on Risk-Sentiment

While the Pound was unable to keep climbing against the US Dollar due to some Brexit jitters yesterday, USD remained weak against most major rivals. Hopes for progress in US-China trade developments, as well as stronger commodity prices, made the safe haven US Dollar less appealing.

The US Dollar did find some modest support in the day’s better-than-expected US business optimism data from NFIB.

Today is likely to be the most influential session of the week for US Dollar movement, with US inflation data due in the afternoon and the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes due this evening.


Canadian Dollar News: Oil Price Strength Continues to Bolster CAD Demand

While Monday’s Canadian housing data fell short of market expectations, the Canadian Dollar has been appealing this week so far thanks to resilient strength in prices of oil, Canada’s most lucrative commodity.

Due to production cuts from OPEC members, as well as an escalating civil war in Libya, oil prices continue to rise past yearly highs. This is making investors more eager to hold onto the Canadian Dollar.

No notable Canadian data will be published today either, leaving Canadian Dollar movement to be driven by movement in commodities like oil, as well as other factors influencing risk-sentiment.



Australian Dollar News: Risk-Sentiment Supports Australian Dollar

Hopes for progress in US-China trade negotiations, combined with US Dollar weakness and stronger commodity prices, made investors more willing to take risks yesterday. As Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate cut bets have diminished recently, the Australian Dollar benefitted.

In particular, the Australian Dollar has strengthened thanks to higher prices in iron ore, Australia’s biggest commodity export. Prices of the commodity neared their best levels in five years this week.

Amid anticipation for this evening’s Federal Reserve policy decision, Australian Dollar investors will be reacting to the latest consumer confidence data from Westpac today.

Upcoming Data


Wednesday, 10th April

01:30    Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence

07:45    French Industrial Production

09:30    UK Trade Balance

09:30    UK Growth Rate

09:30    UK Manufacturing and Industrial Production

12:45    European Central Bank Policy Decision

13:30    ECB Press Conference

13:30    US Inflation Rate

19:00    Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes


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To keep up to date with the Euro, visit the Euro blog in our Currency News section.


Thomas Taylor

Foreign Exchange Manger


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