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Trump Drops the Ball, Big-ly

Joe Mayhew Senior Currency Broker - Trump Drops the Ball, Big-lyWritten by:
Joe Mayhew
Senior Currency Broker
T: 01442 892 069

The pound had a mixed session against a number of its counterparts yesterday; initially gaining on the euro before falling away again and making firm ground against the Greenback. The main story of the day concerned President Trump.

GBP/EUR exchange rate graph

GBP/USD exchange rate graph

News broke across the wires that the ousted FBI Director James Comey had a memo that stated the President had asked him to end the Flynn Investigation. This investigation intended to analyse Trump’s former National Security Advisor Michael T. Flynn’s alleged involvement with Russian associates and their potential role in last year’s US Presidential election.

The concerning question is whether the new President attempted to impede the work of the FBI and the Justice Department; a potentially impeachable offence. This is the latest in a string of embarrassing gaffs by the Commander-in-Chief whose murky links to Russia appear to be bringing the office he represents into disrepute.

The outcome, so far, appears to be a weakening of the US dollar which, since March, has risen over five cents against the euro. As one of the most commonly traded crosses globally the movements in the pair do have peripheral effects on other crosses: such as GBP/EUR.

GBP/EUR 3 month graph

Whilst it would be very easy to pin the entire move in EUR/USD on Trump it is worth noting that the Single Currency has gained ground independently over the course of the last few weeks; particularly since Marine Le Pen’s Presidential bid appears dead and buried (for now) and as Emmanuel Macron has succeeded in appointing a Prime Minister and seems to be diligently working towards building his new political party and government.

Here in the UK Wage Inflation dropped (for the first time since 2014) falling to 2.1%. This is a worrying statistic for the UK Consumer; especially given that goods are rising at a rate of knots and now sits at 2.7%.

It is worth keeping a close eye also on the UK elections. With the major political parties’ manifestos being launched, polling and campaigning will begin heating up. Any sign that a result, other than resounding Conservative victory, could upset the apple-cart and create uncertainty in sterling-pairs.

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Today’s Announcements

This morning from Australia we have had a number of significant employment readings; which were better than forecast. Later this morning we have Retail Sales measures from the UK and the ECB’s Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts. This afternoon and evening we have Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey from the States; as well as, a speech from ECB President Mario Draghi.

Joe Mayhew
Senior Currency Broker
T: 01442 892 060

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